England – Premier League
8 November 2026 · 14:00
HT 1 : 0
Expected goals: 1.23 – 1.41
Our statistical model gives Sunderland a 32% chance of beating Chelsea, puts the draw at 28% and an away win at 40%. It expects 1.23 goals from Sunderland and 1.41 from Chelsea, which makes over 2.5 goals 49% likely and both teams to score 55%.
The most likely result is away win at 40%.
Final score: Sunderland 1-0 Chelsea.
How these probabilities are calculated: our prediction model explained
Our statistical model gives Sunderland a 32% chance of beating Chelsea, puts the draw at 28% and an away win at 40%. It expects 1.23 goals from Sunderland and 1.41 from Chelsea, which makes over 2.5 goals 49% likely and both teams to score 55%.
The model rates over 2.5 goals at 49%, based on expected goals of 1.23 for Sunderland and 1.41 for Chelsea.
The model gives both teams to score a probability of 55%.
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