League One predictions and betting tips

How we predict League One matches

A time-weighted Dixon-Coles model rates the attack and defence of every League One team from the last two seasons, with recent matches counting more. It turns those ratings into expected goals and a probability for each outcome: home win, draw, away win, over and under goals, both teams to score and half-time results.

Reading a League One tip

Each tip shows one selection, its odds and the kickoff time. Open the match to see the model's full probabilities and expected goals. A tip is a probability, not a certainty: even a 70% pick loses three times in ten.

Frequently asked questions