Italy – Serie A
8 November 2026 · 14:00
HT 0 : 2
Expected goals: 1.02 – 1.39
Our statistical model gives Genoa a 28% chance of beating AC Milan, puts the draw at 27% and an away win at 45%. It expects 1.02 goals from Genoa and 1.39 from AC Milan, which makes over 2.5 goals 43% likely and both teams to score 48%.
The most likely result is away win at 45%.
Final score: Genoa 1-2 AC Milan.
How these probabilities are calculated: our prediction model explained
Our statistical model gives Genoa a 28% chance of beating AC Milan, puts the draw at 27% and an away win at 45%. It expects 1.02 goals from Genoa and 1.39 from AC Milan, which makes over 2.5 goals 43% likely and both teams to score 48%.
The model rates over 2.5 goals at 43%, based on expected goals of 1.02 for Genoa and 1.39 for AC Milan.
The model gives both teams to score a probability of 48%.
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