Italy – Serie A
2 November 2026 · 17:30
HT 1 : 1
Expected goals: 1.44 – 1.35
Our statistical model gives Sassuolo a 40% chance of beating Fiorentina, puts the draw at 25% and an away win at 36%. It expects 1.44 goals from Sassuolo and 1.35 from Fiorentina, which makes over 2.5 goals 53% likely and both teams to score 56%.
The most likely result is home win at 40%.
Final score: Sassuolo 2-4 Fiorentina.
How these probabilities are calculated: our prediction model explained
Our statistical model gives Sassuolo a 40% chance of beating Fiorentina, puts the draw at 25% and an away win at 36%. It expects 1.44 goals from Sassuolo and 1.35 from Fiorentina, which makes over 2.5 goals 53% likely and both teams to score 56%.
The model rates over 2.5 goals at 53%, based on expected goals of 1.44 for Sassuolo and 1.35 for Fiorentina.
The model gives both teams to score a probability of 56%.
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