England – Premier League
1 November 2026 · 16:30
HT 0 : 1
Expected goals: 1.13 – 1.38
Our statistical model gives Liverpool a 30% chance of beating Arsenal, puts the draw at 29% and an away win at 42%. It expects 1.13 goals from Liverpool and 1.38 from Arsenal, which makes over 2.5 goals 46% likely and both teams to score 52%.
The most likely result is away win at 42%.
Final score: Liverpool 0-1 Arsenal.
How these probabilities are calculated: our prediction model explained
Our statistical model gives Liverpool a 30% chance of beating Arsenal, puts the draw at 29% and an away win at 42%. It expects 1.13 goals from Liverpool and 1.38 from Arsenal, which makes over 2.5 goals 46% likely and both teams to score 52%.
The model rates over 2.5 goals at 46%, based on expected goals of 1.13 for Liverpool and 1.38 for Arsenal.
The model gives both teams to score a probability of 52%.
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