Portugal – Primeira Liga
1 November 2026 · 15:30
HT 0 : 0
Expected goals: 1.53 – 1.09
Our statistical model gives Arouca a 48% chance of beating Nacional, puts the draw at 24% and an away win at 28%. It expects 1.53 goals from Arouca and 1.09 from Nacional, which makes over 2.5 goals 49% likely and both teams to score 51%.
The most likely result is home win at 48%.
Final score: Arouca 1-0 Nacional.
How these probabilities are calculated: our prediction model explained
Our statistical model gives Arouca a 48% chance of beating Nacional, puts the draw at 24% and an away win at 28%. It expects 1.53 goals from Arouca and 1.09 from Nacional, which makes over 2.5 goals 49% likely and both teams to score 51%.
The model rates over 2.5 goals at 49%, based on expected goals of 1.53 for Arouca and 1.09 for Nacional.
The model gives both teams to score a probability of 51%.
18+ only. Predictions are statistical estimates and can lose. Please gamble responsibly.