Germany – Bundesliga
1 November 2026 · 14:30
HT 1 : 0
Expected goals: 1.52 – 1.29
Our statistical model gives Union Berlin a 42% chance of beating 1. FC Köln, puts the draw at 26% and an away win at 32%. It expects 1.52 goals from Union Berlin and 1.29 from 1. FC Köln, which makes over 2.5 goals 53% likely and both teams to score 57%.
The most likely result is home win at 42%.
Final score: Union Berlin 1-1 1. FC Köln.
How these probabilities are calculated: our prediction model explained
Our statistical model gives Union Berlin a 42% chance of beating 1. FC Köln, puts the draw at 26% and an away win at 32%. It expects 1.52 goals from Union Berlin and 1.29 from 1. FC Köln, which makes over 2.5 goals 53% likely and both teams to score 57%.
The model rates over 2.5 goals at 53%, based on expected goals of 1.52 for Union Berlin and 1.29 for 1. FC Köln.
The model gives both teams to score a probability of 57%.
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