Portugal – Primeira Liga
30 October 2026 · 20:15
HT 0 : 1
Expected goals: 0.84 – 2.08
Our statistical model gives Casa Pia a 15% chance of beating Sporting CP, puts the draw at 19% and an away win at 67%. It expects 0.84 goals from Casa Pia and 2.08 from Sporting CP, which makes over 2.5 goals 56% likely and both teams to score 49%.
The most likely result is away win at 67%.
Final score: Casa Pia 0-2 Sporting CP.
How these probabilities are calculated: our prediction model explained
Our statistical model gives Casa Pia a 15% chance of beating Sporting CP, puts the draw at 19% and an away win at 67%. It expects 0.84 goals from Casa Pia and 2.08 from Sporting CP, which makes over 2.5 goals 56% likely and both teams to score 49%.
The model rates over 2.5 goals at 56%, based on expected goals of 0.84 for Casa Pia and 2.08 for Sporting CP.
The model gives both teams to score a probability of 49%.
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