Turkey – Süper Lig
26 October 2026 · 18:30
HT 2 : 0
Expected goals: 1.87 – 1.41
Our statistical model gives Galatasaray a 48% chance of beating Fenerbahçe, puts the draw at 24% and an away win at 28%. It expects 1.87 goals from Galatasaray and 1.41 from Fenerbahçe, which makes over 2.5 goals 64% likely and both teams to score 65%.
The most likely result is home win at 48%.
Final score: Galatasaray 2-1 Fenerbahçe.
How these probabilities are calculated: our prediction model explained
Our statistical model gives Galatasaray a 48% chance of beating Fenerbahçe, puts the draw at 24% and an away win at 28%. It expects 1.87 goals from Galatasaray and 1.41 from Fenerbahçe, which makes over 2.5 goals 64% likely and both teams to score 65%.
The model rates over 2.5 goals at 64%, based on expected goals of 1.87 for Galatasaray and 1.41 for Fenerbahçe.
The model gives both teams to score a probability of 65%.
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