Netherlands – Eredivisie
25 October 2026 · 15:45
HT 1 : 2
Expected goals: 1.15 – 1.82
Our statistical model gives Sparta Rotterdam a 23% chance of beating Ajax, puts the draw at 25% and an away win at 52%. It expects 1.15 goals from Sparta Rotterdam and 1.82 from Ajax, which makes over 2.5 goals 57% likely and both teams to score 59%.
The most likely result is away win at 52%.
Final score: Sparta Rotterdam 1-2 Ajax.
How these probabilities are calculated: our prediction model explained
Our statistical model gives Sparta Rotterdam a 23% chance of beating Ajax, puts the draw at 25% and an away win at 52%. It expects 1.15 goals from Sparta Rotterdam and 1.82 from Ajax, which makes over 2.5 goals 57% likely and both teams to score 59%.
The model rates over 2.5 goals at 57%, based on expected goals of 1.15 for Sparta Rotterdam and 1.82 for Ajax.
The model gives both teams to score a probability of 59%.
18+ only. Predictions are statistical estimates and can lose. Please gamble responsibly.