Italy – Serie A
25 October 2026 · 14:00
HT 3 : 2
Expected goals: 1.49 – 1.37
Our statistical model gives Atalanta a 40% chance of beating Frosinone, puts the draw at 25% and an away win at 35%. It expects 1.49 goals from Atalanta and 1.37 from Frosinone, which makes over 2.5 goals 55% likely and both teams to score 58%.
The most likely result is home win at 40%.
Final score: Atalanta 4-4 Frosinone.
How these probabilities are calculated: our prediction model explained
Our statistical model gives Atalanta a 40% chance of beating Frosinone, puts the draw at 25% and an away win at 35%. It expects 1.49 goals from Atalanta and 1.37 from Frosinone, which makes over 2.5 goals 55% likely and both teams to score 58%.
The model rates over 2.5 goals at 55%, based on expected goals of 1.49 for Atalanta and 1.37 for Frosinone.
The model gives both teams to score a probability of 58%.
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