England – Championship
24 October 2026 · 11:30
HT 0 : 1
Expected goals: 1.56 – 1.11
Our statistical model gives Sheffield Utd a 47% chance of beating Derby, puts the draw at 26% and an away win at 27%. It expects 1.56 goals from Sheffield Utd and 1.11 from Derby, which makes over 2.5 goals 50% likely and both teams to score 54%.
The most likely result is home win at 47%.
Final score: Sheffield Utd 1-1 Derby.
How these probabilities are calculated: our prediction model explained
Our statistical model gives Sheffield Utd a 47% chance of beating Derby, puts the draw at 26% and an away win at 27%. It expects 1.56 goals from Sheffield Utd and 1.11 from Derby, which makes over 2.5 goals 50% likely and both teams to score 54%.
The model rates over 2.5 goals at 50%, based on expected goals of 1.56 for Sheffield Utd and 1.11 for Derby.
The model gives both teams to score a probability of 54%.
18+ only. Predictions are statistical estimates and can lose. Please gamble responsibly.