England – Championship
23 October 2026 · 19:00
HT 1 : 3
Expected goals: 1.33 – 1.43
Our statistical model gives Bolton a 35% chance of beating Middlesbrough, puts the draw at 27% and an away win at 39%. It expects 1.33 goals from Bolton and 1.43 from Middlesbrough, which makes over 2.5 goals 52% likely and both teams to score 56%.
The most likely result is away win at 39%.
Final score: Bolton 1-5 Middlesbrough.
How these probabilities are calculated: our prediction model explained
Our statistical model gives Bolton a 35% chance of beating Middlesbrough, puts the draw at 27% and an away win at 39%. It expects 1.33 goals from Bolton and 1.43 from Middlesbrough, which makes over 2.5 goals 52% likely and both teams to score 56%.
The model rates over 2.5 goals at 52%, based on expected goals of 1.33 for Bolton and 1.43 for Middlesbrough.
The model gives both teams to score a probability of 56%.
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